Four reasons why the White House is sending Max Baucus to China
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/12/18/four-reasons-why-the-white-house-is-sending-max-baucus-to-china/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394&hpid=z10
President Obama’s decision to nominate Senate Finance
Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) as the next U.S.
ambassador to China took
many in Washington
by surprise. But there are plenty of reasons why this was a smart move from the
White House’s perspective. Here’s four.
1. It (probably) increases the chances of Democrats holding
onto his seat in 2014.
With Baucus retiring and former governor Brian Schwietzer
(D) declining to run for his seat, Democrats face long odds in Montana, a red state
where Republicans have landed a top recruit in Rep. Steve Daines. But
Democratic chances of springing an upset could be about to improve.
Gov. Steve Bullock (D) would be tasked with appointing a
replacement for Baucus, who could also run for a full six-year term in 2014.
One way to go would be to appoint Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D). Walsh is already
running and is liked by national Democrats. If appointed, he would suddenly
have the advantage of incumbency (think Dean Heller in Nevada circa 2012) and could use it to craft
a moderate profile through things like pushing for Obamacare fixes, for
example.
But here’s the million dollar question: Would Bullock
appoint Walsh, given that Walsh faces an underdog primary challenge from former
lieutenant governor John Bohlinger? Doing so could risk the impression that
Bullock is trying to keep Democrats in Montana
from having a choice in the race. That could prompt some backlash against
Bullock that he may want to avoid so early in his tenure. Schweitzer, though he
is technically neutral, might be tempted to make hay over Bohlinger, who was
his lieutenant governor, getting the shaft. And there is no love lost between
Schweitzer and Baucus. Self-preservation almost always comes first in politics,
making Bullock’s decision especially tough.
One more name to keep in mind in all this is Jim Messina,
Obama’s 2012 campaign manager. Messina is a Montana native and
former top Baucus hand, who has been the subject of Senate speculation in his
own right. If Bullock opts for a placeholder, Messina’s name could be in the mix.
2. It removes a credible critic of the Affordable Care Act
from the scene. Baucus had expressed frustration with how the Administration
was implementing its landmark health care law for months, suggesting in
February it could be “a huge train wreck” if the government did not have enough
money to spend on outreach to consumers. A month after the launch of
HealthCare.gov the senator compared the federal health care marketplace to
Humpty Dumpty, questioning whether the White House could repair the complicated
online enrollment system.
Baucus, who has chaired the Finance Committee since 2007
(and served as ranking member for the previous six years), has sought to
conduct oversight of the Administration’s health care efforts for months, and
it is less likely that the panel can do this aggressively –especially in the
next few months — if he’s gone. After Baucus, Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) is
the Finance Committee’s second-ranking Democrat. But Rockfeller already chairs
the Senate Commerce and Transportation Committee and also is retiring after
next year. So the Finance Committee gavel is expected to go instead to Oregon
Sen. Ron Wyden, who currently chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee, but is eager to lead a more prominent panel, according to several
senior Senate aides. Wyden, who has sparred with the White House at times over
health care in the past, may get the gavel, but he has not been as harsh in
public about the law’s recent rollout.
Senior Senate aides said Wednesday evening that no final
decisions have been made on which senators would climb the ranks of Finance and
other committees affected by the changes.
3. Baucus has extensive experience when it comes to China,
especially on trade issues. The senator, who has visited China eight times, led the U.S. effort in the 1990s to bring China into the
World Trade Organization and to establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations
between the two countries. He has hosted trade delegations from China in both Washington
D.C. and Montana, and he shares the Administration’s
views on how to approach delicate U.S.-China relations questions including how
they set their currency, address intellectual property, labor, and human
rights, and treat the environment.
4. The administration has done a similar move before, when
it sent Jon Huntsman to China
as its ambassador. President Obama won plaudits by reaching across the aisle to
select Huntsman, Utah’s former governor, to China. In doing
so it placed a potential 2012 rival out of the country, and Huntsman later had
to defend himself in the 2012 GOP presidential primary against charges he had
served under the very man Republicans were seeking to replace as president.
Ed O’Keefe
contributed to this report.