Oliver Harvey Head of Brexit Research, UK Macro Strategy, Senior FX Strategist

Deutsche Bank still sees 50:50 chance of no-deal Brexit

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-deutschebank/deutsche-bank-still-sees-5050-chance-of-no-deal-brexit-idUSKCN1VI1ZW?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

LONDON (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Wednesday retained its estimate that there is a 50:50 chance Britain will crash out of the European Union without a deal with Brussels following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to suspend parliament.

In a note, the bank’s macro strategist Oliver Harvey added the most likely path to preventing a no-deal Brexit would be the formation of a national unit government either in early September or late October.

Oliver Harvey  Head of Brexit Research, UK Macro Strategy, Senior FX Strategist

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/oliver-harvey-b943bb26

About

I'm responsible for Brexit research and UK macro 

strategy at Deutsche Bank.

I write extensively about UK macroeconomics and politics and lead Deutsche Bank's research response to Brexit. You can find commentary on some of my reports here

http://ftafphaville.ft.com/2014/05/14/1851842/on-the-companies -of-introducing-scotlandcoin/  

here http://www.cityam.com/article/1385602207/britain-s-two-nations-are-continuing-grow-ever-further-apart 

 and here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ll6x2   

I've also contributed to the economics blog Vox and speak at conferences, such as Bloomberg and the FT's Camp Alphaville.

I graduated from the University of Oxford, where I received a first class degree in modern history after gaining an academic scholarship. Afterwards, I took a semester in the University of the Andes MA in political science where I studied the impact of the Colombian civil war, state failure and narcocartels.

I have worked for the Colombian news magazine Semana, and as a freelance journalist, with articles published by The Guardian, Open Democracy and ISN Security Watch. At Oxford I founded the Alligator, a digital magazine which was shortlisted for 'Publication of the Year' in the Guardian Student Media Awards.

My interests include politics, economics, finance, Latin America, literature, film and Newcastle United football club.

Oliver Harvey, Head of Brexit Research, UK Macro Strategy, Deutsche Bank