The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship

The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship

https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/putin-and-erdogan-the-start-of-a-beautiful-friendship-54742

Just a few months ago, Russia and Turkey were on the brink of war. As was the case two centuries ago, the world watched anxiously as tensions escalated between the two powers.

In November, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet flying out of a regime-controlled airbase in Syria. Russian officials echoed Vladimir Putin’s stance: the shooting, the Kremlin said, was a stab in the back by Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Moscow went even further than that by accusing Erdogan’s Turkey of collaborating and supporting the Islamic State. Since the incident, Russian state television broadcasts have been endlessly repeating the claim.

But at the Turkish Embassy in Moscow on July, 26, the atmosphere was somewhat different.

Back on Track

Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek was at the head of the Turkish diplomatic delegation to Moscow. Simsek was the highest ranking Turkish official to visit the Russian capital since the conflict between the two sides began in November.

Whilst a part of the Turkish army stunned the world by attempting - and failing - to overthrow Erdogan in a 20th century-like military coup, this seems to have triggered a further warming in relations with Moscow. Putin and Erdogan will meet on August 9th in the Russian President’s native city of Saint Petersburg. The agenda of what will be discussed is still unclear but Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Russian media, that “they definitely have a lot to talk about, there will be no deficit in topics.”

Visiting Moscow to set the foundations for the meeting, Simsek met with his Russian counterpart Arkady Dvorkovich, setting their frozen relations back on track. The two delegations covered the entire range of Russia-Turkish bilateral issues: from the Turkish stream gas pipeline project and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, to sanctioned food, banned charter flights, and visa restrictions implemented by Russia.

The Turkish delegation has expressed desires to reach higher levels of bilateral cooperation than before the conflict.

Putin has also discussed the meeting with his national security council. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's chief-of-staff Sergey Ivanov and defense minister Sergei Shoigu were among those who attended the meeting.

In short, the two countries have gone from almost declaring war on one another to almost declaring a brotherly friendship of nations, at least rhetorically.  

Unequal Partners

In practice, this will only work if Russia is granted the role of the leading partner, says Russian political expert Vladimir Frolov. In the standoff with Erdogan, Putin has emerged as the clear winner.

Erdogan has spent the almost two-weeks since his military tried to overthrow him rounding up members of the judiciary, academia and military in the name of protecting democracy. What he has really been doing, according to foreign observers, is instituting a crackdown on basic human rights and democratic practices.

“Erdogan is triumphing at home, but he has failed in the region, found himself at deadlock and, now turning away from the West, he has nobody to rely on,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, head of Russia's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

The Syrian Knot

Turkey, the second largest military in NATO, currently hosts the U.S.-led counter-Islamic State coalition at an airbase in the south. But Ankara and Washington clash over the fate of the Syrian Kurds, who seek autonomous rule. The U.S. supports the group, but Turkey has singled them out to be terrorists.

After the downing of the jet, Russia too has made inroads with the Kurds, prompting Turkish claims that they are fighting on behalf of the Assad regime against ethnic Turkmen fighting in northern Syria.

“Moscow started shipping arms to the Kurds. That’s what worried Erdogan the most, not sanctions on Turkish tomatoes or the travel ban,” says Frolov. Russia and the US backing the Kurds – though for different reasons – is Erdogan’s nightmare. Vladimir Putin turned these fears into his main lever of pressure on Erdogan.

According to Lukyanov, “Erdogan is now in a good position to zero out his regional policy in Syria. Putin will use this as an opportunity. For Moscow, if Ankara will stop putting spokes in the wheels in Syria it will be already big achievement.”

Turkey has been supporting rebels in Northern Syria against the Assad regime. Meanwhile, The United States and Russia appear to be coming to terms on Assad’s future. Turkey’s role in this is essential, says Frolov, and Moscow might be able to use its influence with Turkey to bargain with Washington.

A NATO Member

But Putin's opportunity is limited. Although some noise was made about booting Turkey from NATO if Erdogan takes his post-coup purges too far, NATO has no mechanisms with which to expel an existing member state. Instead, “amid reports of human rights violations, Turkey will still stay at NATO, though it will lose its reputation as an equal partner,” says Lukyanov.

The West and NATO are used to coups in Turkey and to the fact that they lead to arrests on massive scale. Recent arrests – reportedly 60000 – are nothing new. After the 1980 coup, at least 100,000 people were arrested, but NATO didn’t kick Turkey out. “Erdogan can do what he wants, and the West will swallow it”, Frolov says.

“This is a lose-lose proposition for the West: either it takes a pragmatic stance and accepts what Erdogan is doing, despite the evident breaches of human rights, law and justice entailed, undermining its claims to having values-based policies. Or it risks losing a crucial partner in both military and migration matters. Putin – who never claimed to a values-based foreign policy – can simply make encouraging noises, sit back and watch the West tie itself in knots,” says Mark Galeotti, an expert in security and military affairs.

New Ally

But what looks like a practical opportunity for the Kremlin also plays out on a more global scale. Mehmet Simsek went out of his way to thank Russia for supporting Erdogan during the coup. After the coup, Erdogan will be revising his partnerships, expert Pavel Shlykov wrote on Carnegie.ru, the website of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Staying in power, Shlykov wrote, already cost Erdogan the “Turkish European dream” on which his party won his first election. This new Turkey, and its evolving regime, seems to be falling into the Kremlin’s embrace.

“Moscow's first priority is the Eurasian [read: anti-Western] community,” says Lukyanov, “and Turkey is a big player, along with China, Iran and others. Of course, Russia will want to use this opportunity to their advantage. The only question is: how far Erdogan's new Turkey will be ready to follow down this path.”

This could be the main issue on the agenda in St Petersburg on August 9th - at least below the surface.

Turkish President Erdoğan to visit Russia on Aug 9, says minister

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-president-erdogan-to-visit-russia-on-aug-9-says-minister-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=102082&NewsCatID=510

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit Russia on Aug. 9 for his first face to face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Moscow and Ankara started to mend ties damaged by the downing of a Russian jet last year, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek has said.

“The ambassador has informed us that our president [Erdoğan] has confirmed that he will be in Saint Petersburg [on Aug. 9],”state-run Anadolu Agency reported Şimşek as saying on July 26 in Moscow, where he and two other ministers had gone to meet their Russian counterparts as part of moves to restore broken economic relations between the countries.

Erdoğan’s visit to Russia will mark the first such meeting as part of mutual efforts to normalize bilateral ties after months of tension due to the downing of a Russian warplane by the Turkish Air Forces in November.

It will also be Erdoğan’s first announced trip abroad since the failed military coup attempt in Turkey on the night of July 15.

Putin called Erdoğan on July 17, a day after security forces quashed a coup attempt staged by a group of high-ranking officers within the army. He reportedly told the Turkish president that “Russia found anti-constitutional acts and violence unacceptable and is hoping for the restoration of order and stability in Turkey.”

It was during this phone call that the two leaders agreed to meet in person soon.

July/26/2016

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-thanks-putin-for-unconditional-support-over-coup-attempt--.aspx?PageID=238&NID=102062&NewsCatID=510

President Erdogan, Russian counterpart Putin to meet for first time since normalization of relations between two countries